On Monday, August 11, 2025, in Brazzaville, Prime Minister Anatole Collinet Makosso presented the outline of the 2026-2028 Medium-Term Budget Framework (MTBF) first to the National Assembly, presided over by Isidore Mvouba, and then to the Senate, presided over by Pierre Ngolo. These presentations took place during two plenary sessions dedicated to the Budgetary Policy Debate (DOB).

According to Article 9 of the Organic Law on Finance Laws, the Government's preparation of the Medium-Term Budget Framework (MTBF) is part of the process of preparing the State budget for the 2026 fiscal year. Its purpose is to establish the financial constraints, indicating the financing needs and capacity, based on the most realistic economic assumptions, covering a three-year period (2026-2028), and to determine the revenue and expenditure trajectory according to the direction given to fiscal policy.

The Advantages of the Medium-Term Budget Framework (MTBF)

Unlike the annual budget, the MTBF examines expenditures over a medium-term period, allowing for better anticipation of financial needs. In particular, it offers the following advantages: the integration of the State's strategic priorities. The MTBF ensures that expenditures are aligned with development objectives and the Government's priorities; and the strengthening of fiscal discipline. By setting medium-term spending limits, the CBMT helps control the dynamics of public spending and ensure its sustainability; it also improves transparency and predictability. The CBMT makes the budgetary process more transparent and allows various stakeholders to better anticipate changes in public spending; and it facilitates better resource allocation. By taking into account the costs of medium-term policies, the CBMT enables a more efficient allocation of public resources.

As a result, economic activity is expected to grow, with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increasing by an average of 3.1% annually over the period 2026-2028, driven primarily by non-oil sector activities (4.4% on average). The projected inflation rate is expected to average 3.06% annually, almost at the level of the CEMAC community standard of 3%. In this environment of uncertainty in several respects, public policy will prioritize the objective of restoring budgetary flexibility, with a view to creating favorable conditions for generating both extensive growth (through an increase in the quantity of factors of production) and intensive growth (through better use of existing factors of production), while mitigating risks.

Government Objectives

The Medium-Term Budget Framework (MTBF) 2026-2028 must enable the following objectives to be achieved simultaneously, starting next year and in subsequent years. These objectives include continuing the rapid reduction of the national debt, in order to restore the cash flow essential for the effective implementation of public policies and to reduce the interest burden in favor of productive spending for the economy and society; to support growth through a particular focus on investment spending, especially in key sectors, to unlock value creation (these key sectors being Energy, Transport, and Agriculture); to support growth through a particular focus on Education and Health policies, which play a fundamental role in long-term growth; to ensure sound control of other expenditures and continue improving tax revenue collection, guaranteeing the sustainability of the Budget and the proper financing of priority policies; to improve the quality and efficiency of public spending by continuing the reform of program budgets and through a series of reforms in the management of public investments.

Measures to achieve revenue targets

To achieve the objectives of the CBMT, the Government plans to focus, in particular, on optimizing budget revenues from natural resources by controlling royalties related to mining, oil, and forestry contracts; to improve tax revenue collection through the digitalization of collection processes and the reduction of exemptions; and to mobilize proceeds from equity investments through better implementation of the public portfolio dividend policy.

Measures to Control Public Spending

To improve fiscal space and create room for maneuver, the Government intends to increase capital spending in sectors with high growth potential for the future, while ensuring the continued diversification of the economy to strengthen its resilience to shocks; also increase essential social spending for vulnerable populations, particularly in the areas of health, education, social services, and sanitation in major cities (spending that is also essential for sustained long-term growth); and strengthen the effectiveness and efficiency of public spending through the implementation of program-based budgeting tools and improved management of public investments.

Key Figures

The figures below illustrate the Government's ambitions while also highlighting the challenges to be met. Over the period 2026-2028, budgetary resources are estimated at 2,479.4 billion FCFA in 2026; 2,599.1 billion FCFA in 2027; and 2,732.4 billion FCFA in 2028, representing an average gradual increase of 1.8% over the period. However, the Government continues to face a major challenge: the need for financing. The emerging budget gap means that room for maneuver is limited, making renewed engagement with Technical and Financial Partners (TFPs) essential. These resources are allocated across the three components of the State budget: the general budget, supplementary budgets, and special treasury accounts.

By their economic nature, these revenues are distributed as follows: tax revenues are projected to increase at an average annual rate of 3.9%, reaching 1,111.2 billion FCFA in 2026, 1,154.2 billion FCFA in 2027, and 1,199.8 billion FCFA in 2028;

Donations, bequests, and grants are expected to decline at an average rate of nearly 7.0%, reaching 79.5 billion FCFA in 2026, 87.0 billion FCFA in 2027, and 70.3 billion FCFA in 2028;

Social security contributions are projected to increase by an average of 4.4%, reaching 95.07 billion FCFA in 2026 and 99.9 billion FCFA in 2027. and 104.4 billion FCFA in 2028. The level of other revenues is expected to remain stable over the period, at around 1,180.7 billion FCFA, a decrease of approximately 122.6 billion FCFA. The main assumptions relating to the oil sector are as follows: Production: 101.5 million barrels in 2026; 106.6 million barrels in 2027; and 111.9 million barrels in 2028.

Over the three-year period 2026-2028, three budget balances are projected to be in surplus: the overall balance including grants; the primary balance; and the overall basic balance. Conversely, two balances are projected to be in deficit: the primary balance excluding oil and the primary basic balance excluding oil.

The overall balance including grants is expected to remain in surplus throughout the period but will be significantly impacted by the decline in oil revenues. It is projected to reach 104.9 billion CFA francs in 2026; 230.3 billion CFA francs in 2027; and 359.2 billion CFA francs in 2028, representing 1.1%, 2.4%, and 3.5% of GDP, respectively.

The primary trade balance is expected to increase at an average annual rate of 22.8% over the period. It is projected to reach 437.9 billion CFA francs in 2026 (4.6% of GDP); 544.3 billion CFA francs in 2027 (5.6% of GDP); and 660.2 billion CFA francs in 2028 (6.5% of GDP).

The overall primary trade balance is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 36.3% over the period, reaching 272.9 billion FCFA (2.9% of GDP) in 2026; 357.3 billion FCFA in 2027 (3.7% of GDP); and 507 billion FCFA (5.0% of GDP) in 2028.

The primary trade deficit excluding oil is expected to decrease at an average annual rate of 4.9% over the period, falling from 671 billion FCFA in 2026 (-10.2% of GDP) to 626.3 billion FCFA in 2027 (-9.1% of GDP), before reaching 606.9 billion FCFA in 2028 (-8.3% of GDP).

Similarly, the primary balance excluding oil is projected to remain in deficit, decreasing from 423.9 billion CFA francs in 2026 (-6.5% of GDP) to 412.3 billion CFA francs in 2027 (-6.0% of GDP), before reaching 388.9 billion CFA francs in 2028 (-5.3% of GDP).

Over the period 2026-2028, the projected public debt stock is expected to decline by an average annual rate of 2.4%. It would amount to 8,398.0 billion CFA francs, rising from 8,576.5 billion CFA francs in 2026 (89.9% of GDP) to 8,452.4 billion CFA francs in 2027 (86.4% of GDP) and to 8,165.2 billion CFA francs in 2028 (80.4% of GDP).

External debt is projected to decrease at an average annual rate of 2.6% over the period. It is expected to reach 2,976.6 billion CFA francs in 2026 (31.2% of GDP); 2,921.3 billion CFA francs in 2027 (29.8% of GDP); and 2,821.1 billion CFA francs in 2028 (27.8% of GDP).

Domestic debt is projected to decrease at an average annual rate of 2.3%. It is expected to reach 5,600.0 billion CFA francs in 2026 (58.7% of GDP); 5,531.1 billion CFA francs in 2027 (56.5% of GDP); and 5,344.1 billion CFA francs in 2028 (52.2% of GDP). Domestic debt would remain dominated by market debt.

Over the period, cash flow and financing are expected to improve continuously.

Cash resources are projected to average 420.1 billion CFA francs over the period. They are expected to increase from 385.1 billion CFA francs in 2026 to 309.5 billion CFA francs in 2027 and to 565.7 billion CFA francs in 2028. These resources would be primarily generated by the proceeds of short-, medium-, and long-term loans. Cash flow expenses are projected to decrease at an average annual rate of 9.7%. These debts are projected to average 934.6 billion CFA francs over the period, rising from 1,032.1 billion CFA francs in 2026 to 930 billion CFA francs in 2027 and 841.8 billion CFA francs in 2028.

It should be noted that following the presentation of the CBMT (Monitoring and Recovery Plan), several questions were raised by members of parliament. These questions concerned payments owed to institutions and the settlement of domestic debt. The Congolese Prime Minister reaffirmed the Government's commitment to continuing the gradual settlement of these debts, while ensuring a balance between budgetary discipline and support for economic activity.

Ultimately, despite the challenging economic climate marked by global tensions and internal constraints, the Makosso Government expressed its satisfaction at having maintained its course on reforms, improved resource mobilization, and strengthened the financial credibility of the Congo. Because he is reassured that the country has the necessary resources and will to build a solid and inclusive economic future.

The Communication Unit of the Ministry of Finance, Budget and Public Portfolio